Module 3
Remote Sensing Modelling
Turn remote-sensing observations into defensible predictions by making the scientific claim, training evidence, validation design, uncertainty and operational domain explicit.
- Portfolio project
- Environmental Monitoring Project
- Prerequisites
- Modules 1–2 or equivalent competence in scientific Python, tabular data, spatial support, raster and EO products, spatial sampling, model QA and reproducible delivery
Learning outcomes
- Formulate predictive EO questions without confusing association, explanation and causality
- Define target, prediction unit, domain and operational predictor contract
- Establish baselines and train reproducible tree-ensemble and XGBoost models
- Design spatial, temporal and nested validation that matches the intended claim
- Evaluate regression, classification, calibration and structured failure
- Map domain of applicability and prediction uncertainty
- Operationalise bounded local and Earth Engine modelling workflows
Lessons and portfolio activities
- 3.1Prediction, Inference and ExplanationPrediction Framing Studio · 120–160 minutes
- 3.2Define the Target and Prediction UnitTarget Contract Laboratory · 140–190 minutes
- 3.3Design Predictors and Modelling HypothesesPredictor Hypothesis Workshop · 150–210 minutes
- 3.4Build the Modelling Dataset and Pre-register the ExperimentExperiment Design and Data Integrity Laboratory · 180–240 minutes
- 3.5What Does a Useful Model Need to Beat?Baseline and Skill Laboratory · 150–210 minutes
- 3.6Trees, Ensembles and BoostingTree and Ensemble Mechanism Laboratory · 160–220 minutes
- 3.7XGBoost from First PrinciplesXGBoost Mechanism Studio · 190–260 minutes
- 3.8Train the First Defensible XGBoost ModelFirst Model Reproducibility Laboratory · 210–280 minutes
- 3.9Validation Is Part of the ModelValidation Claim and Evidence Laboratory · 170–230 minutes
- 3.10Spatial, Grouped and Leave-Location-Out ValidationSpatial Validation Design Laboratory · 210–290 minutes
- 3.11Temporal and Spatiotemporal ValidationTemporal Transfer and Drift Laboratory · 190–260 minutes
- 3.12Nested Model Selection and Leakage PreventionNested Evidence and Leakage Audit Laboratory · 220–300 minutes
- 3.13Hyperparameter OptimisationControlled Search Design Laboratory · 210–290 minutes
- 3.14Early Stopping, Regularisation and Learning DynamicsLearning Dynamics and Early-stopping Laboratory · 220–300 minutes
- 3.15Feature Selection, Redundancy and StabilityFeature Relevance and Stability Laboratory · 210–290 minutes
- 3.16Imbalanced Classification and Decision ThresholdsRare-habitat Decision Threshold Laboratory · 220–300 minutes
- 3.17Regression EvaluationRegression Evidence and Diagnostic Laboratory · 220–300 minutes
- 3.18Classification Evaluation and Probability QualityClassification and Probability-quality Laboratory · 230–310 minutes
- 3.19Residual Geography and Structured FailureStructured Failure and Residual Geography Laboratory · 230–310 minutes
- 3.20Model Interpretation Without Causal OverclaimingPredictive Interpretation and Claim-boundary Laboratory · 240–320 minutes
- 3.21Domain of Applicability and ExtrapolationDomain of Applicability Signature Laboratory · 250–340 minutes
- 3.22What Uncertainty Means in Predictive EOPredictive Uncertainty Reasoning Laboratory · 210–290 minutes
- 3.23Prediction Intervals and Quantile ApproachesQuantile Prediction Interval Laboratory · 240–330 minutes
- 3.24Conformal Prediction and Empirical CoverageStructured Split-conformal Coverage Laboratory · 250–340 minutes
- 3.25Uncertainty and Applicability MapsPrediction Evidence Mapping Signature Laboratory · 250–350 minutes
- 3.26Raster Inference at ScaleOperational Raster Inference Laboratory · 250–350 minutes
- 3.27Google Earth Engine for Modelling WorkflowsCloud EO Modelling Component Laboratory · 250–340 minutes
- 3.28Local ML versus Earth Engine MLModelling Architecture Decision Studio · 230–320 minutes
- 3.29Monitoring Through Repeated PredictionsRepeated Prediction and Drift Laboratory · 250–350 minutes
- 3.30Reproducibility, Model Cards and Operational QAOperational Model Package Signature Laboratory · 270–370 minutes
- CapstoneEnvironmental Monitoring ProjectIndependent Module Capstone · 40–60 hours