Field Lab 06 · Change Detection · Northern Evia, Greece
Track recovery after a fire
Investigate how satellite-observed vegetation condition changed after the August 2021 northern Evia wildfire—and whether the subsequent spectral recovery was spatially uniform.
A return of NDVI or NBR toward the pre-fire spectral baseline can indicate renewed greenness or changes in canopy and moisture structure. Sentinel-2 alone cannot prove recovery of species composition, biomass, forest structure, habitat quality or ecosystem function.
Investigation path
From a defensible question to a bounded claim
01Question
Define the event, evidence and non-claims before processing imagery.
02Predict
Anticipate seasonal confounding, cloud artefacts and index behaviour.
03Explain
Connect NIR–SWIR and red–NIR responses to NBR and NDVI.
04Build
Create masked, matched-season composites and transparent metrics.
05Check
Audit valid observations, ranges, grids, denominators and exports.
06Interpret
Describe spatial and temporal spectral patterns cautiously.
07Defend
Communicate uncertainty and separate spectral from ecological recovery.
Authoritative spatial evidence
Copernicus EMSR527 fire perimeter
Copernicus Emergency Management Service activated EMSR527 on 4 August 2021 for wildfires in Greece. This project bundles the AOI01 Monit03 observed-event vector delivered on 11 August 2021 and filters the feature whose notation is Burnt area. The source product records that feature as 50,909.887828 hectares.
The outline below is drawn from the bundled authoritative GeoJSON, not from an illustrative hand-drawn polygon. The vector remains an emergency-mapping observation with its own acquisition date and method—not timeless ground truth.
EMSR527 · AOI01 · Delineation Monit03 · delivered 11 August 2021. Coordinates shown in WGS 84.
Question before pixels
Write the analysis contract first
Event
August 2021 northern Evia wildfire
Perimeter
EMSR527 AOI01 Monit03, notation = Burnt area
EO source
COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED
Unit
20 m analysis pixels inside the mapped perimeter; descriptive, not independent ecological replicates
Primary evidence
Continuous dNBR and multi-year relative NBR spectral recovery
Required non-claims
This analysis does not directly measure species composition, tree survival, above-ground biomass, habitat quality, ecosystem function or causal drivers of recovery.
Matched seasons
A seven-period longitudinal design
Every period uses the same 1 September–15 October window. The 2019–2020 baseline reduces dependence on one year but does not remove interannual variability. The 2021 window begins after the fire and remains seasonally comparable. The project stops at 2025 because the 2026 window is not complete.
201901 Sep–15 OctBaseline year 1
202001 Sep–15 OctBaseline year 2
202101 Sep–15 OctImmediate post-fire reference
202201 Sep–15 OctRecovery year 1
202301 Sep–15 OctRecovery year 2
202401 Sep–15 OctRecovery year 3
202501 Sep–15 OctLatest complete recovery season
Predict Which comparison is fairer: July 2020 vs July 2022, or April 2020 vs September 2022?
Neither example automatically proves a fair fire comparison, but matching the same seasonal window is more defensible. Spring–late-summer differences can exaggerate disturbance through phenology and moisture seasonality.
Surface reflectance
Why harmonized Sentinel-2 Level-2A?
Level-2A provides atmospherically corrected surface reflectance. Earth Engine’s harmonized collection adjusts newer scenes across the Sentinel-2 processing-baseline shift, supporting a more internally consistent 2019–2025 series. Reflectance bands are stored scaled by 10,000.
B4 Red and B8 NIR: native 10 m
B11 SWIR1 and B12 SWIR2: native 20 m
SCL: Scene Classification Layer used for core masking
Common project output: 20 m to avoid implying native 10 m detail for B12
The core code removes SCL 3 (cloud shadow), 8 and 9 (medium/high cloud), 10 (cirrus), 11 (snow/ice), and 6 (water) for this terrestrial analysis. Learners compare masked and unmasked imagery and map valid-observation counts. Masking changes the analysis population.
Median composite
Each period is a median of valid observations, reducing sensitivity to residual cloud and outliers. It is not a single “2024 image.” Contributing dates and observation counts vary spatially and must be reported.
Diagnose A dark pixel appears only in one composite. Is it necessarily burned vegetation?
No. Check cloud shadow, terrain shadow, water, acquisition support, residual haze, registration and the valid-observation layer before interpreting disturbance.
Disturbance and vegetation evidence
NBR, dNBR and NDVI answer different questions
Fire-sensitive contrast
NBR
(B8 − B12) / (B8 + B12)
Tracks the contrast between near-infrared and shortwave-infrared response.
Initial spectral change
dNBR
NBRpre − NBRpost
Retained as a continuous result. Generic thresholds are not presented as validated Evia burn-severity classes.
Complementary greenness
NDVI
(B8 − B4) / (B8 + B4)
Supports greenness interpretation but can saturate and does not measure complete ecological recovery.
Green vegetation may have returned while SWIR-sensitive canopy, structure or moisture characteristics remain different. This is a spectral hypothesis, not proof of a mechanism.
Longitudinal metric
Relative spectral recovery
RecoveryFractiony=(Iy − Ipost) / (Ipre − Ipost)
The code masks pixels where the absolute NBR denominator is below 0.05. Values near 0 resemble the immediate post-fire reference; values near 1 have returned toward the pre-fire spectral baseline; values above 1 exceed it; and negative values are farther from baseline. This is never reported as an “ecosystem recovery percentage.”
<0 farther from baseline0 post-fire reference1 pre-fire baseline>1 exceeds baseline
Spatial heterogeneity
Does initial change relate to recovery?
The workflow divides continuous dNBR inside the EMS perimeter at its own 33rd and 67th percentiles. These are descriptive lower, medium and higher initial spectral-change strata—not universal severity classes. Annual medians and IQRs are compared without treating neighbouring pixels as independent replicates.
Lower initial change
Medium initial change
Higher initial change
→ annual median + IQR → compare trajectories, not pixel p-values
A conservative lag-candidate screen requires higher initial dNBR, 2025 relative recovery below 0.6, and at least two valid observations. Its output is labelled candidate persistent spectral departure, not failed ecological recovery.
Required visual evidence
Every figure has an analytical job
ALocation
Orient the event and perimeter provenance.
BPre/post imagery
Inspect comparable true- and false-colour evidence.
CNBR + dNBR
Explain the disturbance-sensitive spectral contrast.
DAnnual maps
Show matched-season spatial recovery patterns.
ETrajectories
Compare NDVI, NBR and valid observation support.
FStrata
Test whether recovery appears spatially uniform.
GUncertainty
Bound what the maps and summaries can establish.
HBrief
Connect methods, evidence and a defensible conclusion.
Satellite composites, dNBR maps and trajectories are deliberately not pre-populated here. Learners generate them by executing the supplied workflow; the Academy does not fabricate result values or imagery.
Scientific defence
Uncertainty is part of the result
Atmosphere
Residual cloud, haze and shadow can survive masking.
Phenology
Matched dates reduce but do not eliminate seasonal or interannual differences.
Grid
B8 is 10 m; B12 is 20 m. A common grid requires resampling decisions.
Composite
A median mixes dates and spatially varying observation counts.
Perimeter
EMSR527 is a dated rapid-mapping product with a stated extraction method.
Ecology
Similar index values can arise from different vegetation communities or structures.
Baseline
Two pre-fire seasons cannot describe the full natural range.
Dependence
Neighbouring pixels are spatially autocorrelated, not independent replicates.
Build and export
Reproducible Earth Engine workflow
The script is organized as small functions for masking, index creation, seasonal compositing, period summaries, recovery fractions and exports. Upload the bundled GeoJSON to your Earth Engine project, replace the single asset ID, inspect every QA layer, then run the exports.
Keep AOI, dates, scale and thresholds together in config.
Review the EMS feature filter before analysis.
Start export tasks only after maps and summaries reconcile.
Record the Earth Engine asset ID, retrieval date and code version.