Field Lab 06 · Change Detection · Northern Evia, Greece

Track recovery after a fire

Investigate how satellite-observed vegetation condition changed after the August 2021 northern Evia wildfire—and whether the subsequent spectral recovery was spatially uniform.

Spectral recovery is not ecological recovery

A return of NDVI or NBR toward the pre-fire spectral baseline can indicate renewed greenness or changes in canopy and moisture structure. Sentinel-2 alone cannot prove recovery of species composition, biomass, forest structure, habitat quality or ecosystem function.

Investigation path

From a defensible question to a bounded claim

  1. 01Question

    Define the event, evidence and non-claims before processing imagery.

  2. 02Predict

    Anticipate seasonal confounding, cloud artefacts and index behaviour.

  3. 03Explain

    Connect NIR–SWIR and red–NIR responses to NBR and NDVI.

  4. 04Build

    Create masked, matched-season composites and transparent metrics.

  5. 05Check

    Audit valid observations, ranges, grids, denominators and exports.

  6. 06Interpret

    Describe spatial and temporal spectral patterns cautiously.

  7. 07Defend

    Communicate uncertainty and separate spectral from ecological recovery.

Authoritative spatial evidence

Copernicus EMSR527 fire perimeter

Copernicus Emergency Management Service activated EMSR527 on 4 August 2021 for wildfires in Greece. This project bundles the AOI01 Monit03 observed-event vector delivered on 11 August 2021 and filters the feature whose notation is Burnt area. The source product records that feature as 50,909.887828 hectares.

The outline below is drawn from the bundled authoritative GeoJSON, not from an illustrative hand-drawn polygon. The vector remains an emergency-mapping observation with its own acquisition date and method—not timeless ground truth.

Loading reference map…

EMSR527 · AOI01 · Delineation Monit03 · delivered 11 August 2021. Coordinates shown in WGS 84.

Question before pixels

Write the analysis contract first

Event
August 2021 northern Evia wildfire
Perimeter
EMSR527 AOI01 Monit03, notation = Burnt area
EO source
COPERNICUS/S2_SR_HARMONIZED
Unit
20 m analysis pixels inside the mapped perimeter; descriptive, not independent ecological replicates
Primary evidence
Continuous dNBR and multi-year relative NBR spectral recovery
Required non-claims

This analysis does not directly measure species composition, tree survival, above-ground biomass, habitat quality, ecosystem function or causal drivers of recovery.

Matched seasons

A seven-period longitudinal design

Every period uses the same 1 September–15 October window. The 2019–2020 baseline reduces dependence on one year but does not remove interannual variability. The 2021 window begins after the fire and remains seasonally comparable. The project stops at 2025 because the 2026 window is not complete.

  1. 201901 Sep–15 OctBaseline year 1
  2. 202001 Sep–15 OctBaseline year 2
  3. 202101 Sep–15 OctImmediate post-fire reference
  4. 202201 Sep–15 OctRecovery year 1
  5. 202301 Sep–15 OctRecovery year 2
  6. 202401 Sep–15 OctRecovery year 3
  7. 202501 Sep–15 OctLatest complete recovery season
Predict Which comparison is fairer: July 2020 vs July 2022, or April 2020 vs September 2022?

Neither example automatically proves a fair fire comparison, but matching the same seasonal window is more defensible. Spring–late-summer differences can exaggerate disturbance through phenology and moisture seasonality.

Surface reflectance

Why harmonized Sentinel-2 Level-2A?

Level-2A provides atmospherically corrected surface reflectance. Earth Engine’s harmonized collection adjusts newer scenes across the Sentinel-2 processing-baseline shift, supporting a more internally consistent 2019–2025 series. Reflectance bands are stored scaled by 10,000.

  • B4 Red and B8 NIR: native 10 m
  • B11 SWIR1 and B12 SWIR2: native 20 m
  • SCL: Scene Classification Layer used for core masking
  • Common project output: 20 m to avoid implying native 10 m detail for B12
Read the Earth Engine dataset documentation ↗

Quality assurance

Mask first; composite second

SCL mask

The core code removes SCL 3 (cloud shadow), 8 and 9 (medium/high cloud), 10 (cirrus), 11 (snow/ice), and 6 (water) for this terrestrial analysis. Learners compare masked and unmasked imagery and map valid-observation counts. Masking changes the analysis population.

Median composite

Each period is a median of valid observations, reducing sensitivity to residual cloud and outliers. It is not a single “2024 image.” Contributing dates and observation counts vary spatially and must be reported.

Diagnose A dark pixel appears only in one composite. Is it necessarily burned vegetation?

No. Check cloud shadow, terrain shadow, water, acquisition support, residual haze, registration and the valid-observation layer before interpreting disturbance.

Disturbance and vegetation evidence

NBR, dNBR and NDVI answer different questions

Fire-sensitive contrast

NBR

(B8 − B12) / (B8 + B12)

Tracks the contrast between near-infrared and shortwave-infrared response.

Initial spectral change

dNBR

NBRpre − NBRpost

Retained as a continuous result. Generic thresholds are not presented as validated Evia burn-severity classes.

Complementary greenness

NDVI

(B8 − B4) / (B8 + B4)

Supports greenness interpretation but can saturate and does not measure complete ecological recovery.

Review the USGS NBR explanation ↗
Explain NDVI approaches baseline while NBR remains depressed. What can you say?

Green vegetation may have returned while SWIR-sensitive canopy, structure or moisture characteristics remain different. This is a spectral hypothesis, not proof of a mechanism.

Longitudinal metric

Relative spectral recovery

RecoveryFractiony=(Iy − Ipost) / (Ipre − Ipost)

The code masks pixels where the absolute NBR denominator is below 0.05. Values near 0 resemble the immediate post-fire reference; values near 1 have returned toward the pre-fire spectral baseline; values above 1 exceed it; and negative values are farther from baseline. This is never reported as an “ecosystem recovery percentage.”

Spatial heterogeneity

Does initial change relate to recovery?

The workflow divides continuous dNBR inside the EMS perimeter at its own 33rd and 67th percentiles. These are descriptive lower, medium and higher initial spectral-change strata—not universal severity classes. Annual medians and IQRs are compared without treating neighbouring pixels as independent replicates.

A conservative lag-candidate screen requires higher initial dNBR, 2025 relative recovery below 0.6, and at least two valid observations. Its output is labelled candidate persistent spectral departure, not failed ecological recovery.

Required visual evidence

Every figure has an analytical job

  1. ALocation

    Orient the event and perimeter provenance.

  2. BPre/post imagery

    Inspect comparable true- and false-colour evidence.

  3. CNBR + dNBR

    Explain the disturbance-sensitive spectral contrast.

  4. DAnnual maps

    Show matched-season spatial recovery patterns.

  5. ETrajectories

    Compare NDVI, NBR and valid observation support.

  6. FStrata

    Test whether recovery appears spatially uniform.

  7. GUncertainty

    Bound what the maps and summaries can establish.

  8. HBrief

    Connect methods, evidence and a defensible conclusion.

Satellite composites, dNBR maps and trajectories are deliberately not pre-populated here. Learners generate them by executing the supplied workflow; the Academy does not fabricate result values or imagery.

Scientific defence

Uncertainty is part of the result

Atmosphere

Residual cloud, haze and shadow can survive masking.

Phenology

Matched dates reduce but do not eliminate seasonal or interannual differences.

Grid

B8 is 10 m; B12 is 20 m. A common grid requires resampling decisions.

Composite

A median mixes dates and spatially varying observation counts.

Perimeter

EMSR527 is a dated rapid-mapping product with a stated extraction method.

Ecology

Similar index values can arise from different vegetation communities or structures.

Baseline

Two pre-fire seasons cannot describe the full natural range.

Dependence

Neighbouring pixels are spatially autocorrelated, not independent replicates.

Build and export

Reproducible Earth Engine workflow

The script is organized as small functions for masking, index creation, seasonal compositing, period summaries, recovery fractions and exports. Upload the bundled GeoJSON to your Earth Engine project, replace the single asset ID, inspect every QA layer, then run the exports.

  • Keep AOI, dates, scale and thresholds together in config.
  • Review the EMS feature filter before analysis.
  • Start export tasks only after maps and summaries reconcile.
  • Record the Earth Engine asset ID, retrieval date and code version.
maskS2(image)
addIndices(image)
seasonalComposite(year)
recoveryFraction(current)
summarisePeriod(image)
summariseStratum(image, stratum)
Export.table.toDrive(...)
Export.image.toDrive(...)

Mandatory checks

Nine gates before interpretation

  1. 01The AOI matches the documented EMSR527 event feature.
  2. 02All temporal windows are exact and seasonally comparable.
  3. 03Masked and unmasked imagery plus valid counts behave sensibly.
  4. 04Reflectance and index ranges are plausible.
  5. 05The mapped fire area shows the expected broad NBR decline.
  6. 06Low observation availability is not driving a recovery pattern.
  7. 07Small or unstable recovery denominators are masked.
  8. 08Maps, charts and exported tables reconcile.
  9. 09Every interpretation says spectral recovery when that is what was measured.

Portfolio artifact

Environmental Recovery Monitoring Brief

  1. Context map with the EMSR527 perimeter
  2. Pre-fire and immediate post-fire Sentinel-2 composites
  3. Baseline and post-fire NBR plus continuous dNBR
  4. Annual matched-season recovery maps for 2022–2025
  5. NDVI and NBR trajectories with median and IQR
  6. Relative spectral recovery map and recovery-strata comparison
  7. Observation-availability and uncertainty assessment
  8. 300–500 word Environmental Recovery Monitoring Brief
  9. Reproducible Earth Engine script, CSV and analysis manifest

Authoritative references

Sources and purpose